Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 18/08, 21:00
Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Sebastian Ofner
Team pages: Roman Safiullin · Sebastian Ofner
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Safiullin
Sebastian Ofner
Estimated games
28.7
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Safiullin
7-3 (W-L)
Sebastian Ofner
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Safiullin
1–2
Sebastian Ofner
(3 last)
- 25 Apr2-0 13-10W
- 30 Oct1-2 16-17L
- 19 Dec0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1584 · Sebastian Ofner 1447
| Roman Safiullin | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roman Safiullin (rating 1584 vs 1447).
- Sebastian Ofner dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Roman Safiullin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Roman Safiullin 1–2 Sebastian Ofner (3).
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.2 | 1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.6-16.1 | 13.2-14.6 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 73% |
| Break % | 37% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.7
H2H · Roman Safiullin 1 – 2 Sebastian Ofner (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Safiullin 1–2 Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/23 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10/20 Challenger Hamburg | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/12/15 ITF Indonesia F5 | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 03/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-21 | W |
| 29/06 | Andrey Rublev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 25/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-28 | W |
| 24/06 | Kimmer Coppejans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | James McCabe Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 64% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.