Tennis · Challenger Quebec City · 17/08, 18:30
Prediction: Nicolas Arseneault vs Tristan Schoolkate
Team pages: Nicolas Arseneault · Tristan Schoolkate
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Arseneault
Tristan Schoolkate
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Arseneault
3-7 (W-L)
Tristan Schoolkate
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Arseneault 1438 · Tristan Schoolkate 1510
| Nicolas Arseneault | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Schoolkate (rating 1438 vs 1510).
Statistics
| Nicolas Arseneault | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-12.5 | 13.6-13.4 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 30% | 32.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Benjamin Willwerth M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jonah Braswell M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 09/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Daniel Evans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Johannus Monday Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Arseneault vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 71% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.