Tennis · Challenger Quebec City · 17/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alexander Donski vs Andrea Guerrieri
Team pages: Alexander Donski · Andrea Guerrieri
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Donski
Andrea Guerrieri
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Donski
6-4 (W-L)
Andrea Guerrieri
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Donski
0–1
Andrea Guerrieri
(1 last)
- 20 Nov0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Donski 1540 · Andrea Guerrieri 1549
| Alexander Donski | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 43.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Donski 0–1 Andrea Guerrieri (1).
Statistics
| Alexander Donski | Andrea Guerrieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.4 | 11-11 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 68% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Alexander Donski 0 – 1 Andrea Guerrieri (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Donski 0–1 Andrea Guerrieri
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/25 Challenger Bergamo | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Donski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Andrea Guerrieri
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Luca Nardi ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Donski vs Andrea Guerrieri?
Our model gives 61% to Andrea Guerrieri, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.