Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 18/08, 00:30
Prediction: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Luka Pavlovic
Team pages: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves · Luka Pavlovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Luka Pavlovic
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
8-2 (W-L)
Luka Pavlovic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
1–0
Luka Pavlovic
(1 last)
- 13 Apr2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1633 · Luka Pavlovic 1556
| Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (rating 1633 vs 1556).
- Luka Pavlovic dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 47.8% break avg.
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–0 Luka Pavlovic (1).
Statistics
| Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-8.9 | 11.9-11 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 58.9% | 47.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1 – 0 Luka Pavlovic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–0 Luka Pavlovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/25 Challenger Mexico City | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Maximo Zeitune M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/08 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/07 | Matias Soto M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/07 | Bastian Malla M25 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Luka Pavlovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yanki Erel Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 57% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.