Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 18/08, 02:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
8-2 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1538 · Rio Noguchi 1505
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.7 | 10.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 57% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Karl Poling M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Tyler Bowers M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Simon Caldwell M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Felipe Rivadeneira Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 56% to Rio Noguchi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.