Tennis · Challenger Roehampton · 17/08, 13:30
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Patrick Brady
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Patrick Brady
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Patrick Brady
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
5-5 (W-L)
Patrick Brady
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1455 · Patrick Brady 1548
| Alafia Ayeni | Patrick Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patrick Brady (rating 1455 vs 1548).
- Alafia Ayeni dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 41% break avg.
- Patrick Brady is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (7.3/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Patrick Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.8 | 10.7-9.2 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 7.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 41% | 38.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Ethan Cook Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Patrick Brady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Jesse Delaney Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/07 | Emile Hudd M25 Aldershot |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Toby Martin M25 Aldershot |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Alexis Canter M25 Aldershot |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Herman Hoeyeraal Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/07 | James Mackinlay Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Patrick Brady?
Our model gives 61% to Patrick Brady, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.