Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 18/08, 16:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Andy Andrade
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Andy Andrade
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Andy Andrade
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Andy Andrade
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Liam Draxl
1–0
Andy Andrade
(1 last)
- 11 Apr2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1537 · Andy Andrade 1471
| Liam Draxl | Andy Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1537 vs 1471).
- Liam Draxl is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Liam Draxl 1–0 Andy Andrade (1).
- Note: Andy Andrade makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Andy Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10 | 11.8-13.2 |
| Aces | 3 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 36% | 48.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Liam Draxl 1 – 0 Andy Andrade (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liam Draxl 1–0 Andy Andrade
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/25 Challenger Sarasota | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Andy Andrade
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Colton Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Ammar Elamin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 03/06 | Timo Legout Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Andy Andrade?
Our model gives 63% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.