Tennis · Challenger Todi · 15/08, 18:00
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Alex Barrena
Team pages: Maxim Mrva · Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Maxim Mrva
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Maxim Mrva
4-6 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1535 · Alex Barrena 1505
| Maxim Mrva | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Maxim Mrva makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.4 | 10.9-11.3 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 10/08 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Nick Mertgens Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Alex Barrena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Henri Squire Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Johan Nikles Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 55% to Maxim Mrva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.