Tennis · M25 Idanha-A-Nova · 13/08, 10:30
Prediction: Mathieu Scaglia vs Pablo Perez Navarro
Team pages: Mathieu Scaglia · Pablo Perez Navarro
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathieu Scaglia
Pablo Perez Navarro
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mathieu Scaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Pablo Perez Navarro
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathieu Scaglia 1481 · Pablo Perez Navarro 1526
| Mathieu Scaglia | Pablo Perez Navarro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pablo Perez Navarro (rating 1481 vs 1526).
- Note: Mathieu Scaglia makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Mathieu Scaglia | Pablo Perez Navarro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.4 | 9.7-7.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 42% | 55.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathieu Scaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Julio Cesar Porras M15 Rognac |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Nicholas Godsick M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lucas Poullain M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Nick Beamish M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Pablo Perez Navarro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/08 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Michiel de Krom M25 Denia |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Manuel Belda M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Oliver Crawford Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Gabi Adrian Boitan M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/06 | Matei Varbanciu M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathieu Scaglia vs Pablo Perez Navarro?
Our model gives 53% to Pablo Perez Navarro, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.