Tennis · Challenger Todi · 11/08, 10:00
Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Daniel Michalski · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Michalski
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Michalski
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Michalski
1–0
Lorenzo Carboni
(1 last)
- 19 Sept2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1462 · Lorenzo Carboni 1530
| Daniel Michalski | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Carboni (rating 1462 vs 1530).
- Head-to-head: Daniel Michalski 1–0 Lorenzo Carboni (1).
Statistics
| Daniel Michalski | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-9.9 | 12-9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 55.8% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Daniel Michalski 1 – 0 Lorenzo Carboni (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Michalski 1–0 Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/24 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Michalski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Oleg Prihodko M25 Koszalin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Marcel Zielinski M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Wojciech Marek M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Przemyslaw Michocki M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/07 | Federico Cina ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Calvin Hemery ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Alessandro Dragoni M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/07 | Matteo Trombini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Li Tu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 50% to Daniel Michalski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.