Tennis · Challenger Todi · 10/08, 10:00
Prediction: Maximilian Homberg vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Maximilian Homberg · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Maximilian Homberg
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Maximilian Homberg
5-5 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maximilian Homberg 1532 · Lorenzo Carboni 1525
| Maximilian Homberg | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Maximilian Homberg | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.3 | 12.1-9.4 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maximilian Homberg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Niccolo Ciavarella M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Peter Buldorini M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Store |
0-1 | 3-6 | L |
| 26/06 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Mak Mikovic M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Marko Retelj M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Bor Artnak M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Alessandro Dragoni M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/07 | Matteo Trombini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Li Tu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maximilian Homberg vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 62% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.