Tennis · Challenger Todi · 11/08, 10:00
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile
Team pages: Maxim Mrva · Pierluigi Basile
Prediction summary
Winner
Maxim Mrva
Pierluigi Basile
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Maxim Mrva
3-7 (W-L)
Pierluigi Basile
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1516 · Pierluigi Basile 1563
| Maxim Mrva | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pierluigi Basile (rating 1516 vs 1563).
- Pierluigi Basile is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Maxim Mrva makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.1 | 13.5-10.2 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 45% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Nick Mertgens Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Pierluigi Basile
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/07 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Marcello Serafini M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Gabriele Vulpitta M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 05/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile?
Our model gives 52% to Maxim Mrva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.