Tennis · Challenger Todi · 09/08, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Carboni
Team pages: Gabriele Maria Noce · Lorenzo Carboni
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Maria Noce
Lorenzo Carboni
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Maria Noce
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Carboni
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1517 · Lorenzo Carboni 1500
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Lorenzo Carboni | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.3 | 11.8-9.9 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 47.7% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Nicola Rispoli M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Veljko Krstic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Vlado Jankanj M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Pietro Pampanin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 29/07 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/07 | Pierre Delage M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Filippo Alfano M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Michele Mecarelli M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Lorenzo Carboni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Alessandro Dragoni M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/07 | Matteo Trombini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Jelle Sels Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Li Tu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Lorenzo Carboni?
Our model gives 64% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.