Tennis · Challenger Todi · 09/08, 10:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Maximilian Homberg
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Maximilian Homberg
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Maximilian Homberg
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
5-5 (W-L)
Maximilian Homberg
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1469 · Maximilian Homberg 1525
| Valerio Aboian | Maximilian Homberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maximilian Homberg (rating 1469 vs 1525).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Maximilian Homberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.2 | 11.1-10 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 54.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Yannic Nittmann Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Mena Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Valentin Basel Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
Maximilian Homberg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Niccolo Ciavarella M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Peter Buldorini M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Store |
0-1 | 3-6 | L |
| 26/06 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Mak Mikovic M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Marko Retelj M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Bor Artnak M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Alessandro Bellifemine M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Maximilian Homberg?
Our model gives 55% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.