Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Team pages: Mathys Erhard · Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathys Erhard
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mathys Erhard
6-4 (W-L)
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mathys Erhard
2–0
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
(2 last)
- 09 Feb2-1 18-11W
- 10 Jul2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathys Erhard 1576 · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1606
| Mathys Erhard | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mathys Erhard 2–0 Ivan Marrero Curbelo (2).
Statistics
| Mathys Erhard | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-9.8 | 12.4-8.3 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Mathys Erhard 2 – 0 Ivan Marrero Curbelo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathys Erhard 2–0 Ivan Marrero Curbelo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/25 Challenger Tenerife Qual | 2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 10/07/24 M25 The Hague | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathys Erhard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Olaf Pieczkowski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Ollersbach |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Andrej Martin M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jan Kumstat M25 Ollersbach |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 23/07 | Thilo Behrmann M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Enrique Collar Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Keshav Chopra M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Rafael Giotis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo?
Our model gives 55% to Mathys Erhard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.