Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 07/08, 10:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Ilya Ivashka
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Ilya Ivashka
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
4-6 (W-L)
Ilya Ivashka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1463 · Ilya Ivashka 1583
| Joel Schwaerzler | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1463 vs 1583).
- Ilya Ivashka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.4 | 13.3-9.1 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 75.7% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 04/08 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Ilya Ivashka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Melvin Kumar Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 17/07 | Dan Added Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/07 | Aziz Ouakaa Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/07 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Agustin Siancha Borlenghi Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Ilya Ivashka?
Our model gives 57% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.