Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 07/08, 16:00
Prediction: Koki Matsuda vs Gijs Brouwer
Team pages: Koki Matsuda · Gijs Brouwer
Prediction summary
Winner
Koki Matsuda
Gijs Brouwer
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Koki Matsuda
9-1 (W-L)
Gijs Brouwer
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Koki Matsuda 1573 · Gijs Brouwer 1493
| Koki Matsuda | Gijs Brouwer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Koki Matsuda (rating 1573 vs 1493).
- Koki Matsuda is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Gijs Brouwer makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Koki Matsuda | Gijs Brouwer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-11.7 | 9.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 63% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 04/08 | Kerem Yilmaz Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Cem Ilkel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/07 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Karan Singh Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Gijs Brouwer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Ivan Gakhov Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/04 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Shymkent · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 24/03 | Lucas Poullain M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/03 | James Beaven M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/03 | Marko Maric M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 18/02 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Metepec · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Koki Matsuda vs Gijs Brouwer?
Our model gives 60% to Koki Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.