Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 06/08, 10:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
4-6 (W-L)
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1453 · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1608
| Joel Schwaerzler | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1453 vs 1608).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 42.7% break avg.
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.8 | 12.7-8 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 77.8% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Mirza Basic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Alan Bojarski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Felipe Virgili Berini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Mohamed Aziz Dougaz?
Our model gives 51% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.