Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 06/08, 10:00
Prediction: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maks Kasnikowski
Team pages: Ivan Marrero Curbelo · Maks Kasnikowski
Prediction summary
Winner
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Maks Kasnikowski
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
8-2 (W-L)
Maks Kasnikowski
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1607 · Maks Kasnikowski 1532
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivan Marrero Curbelo (rating 1607 vs 1532).
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ivan Marrero Curbelo | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-7.5 | 12-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 31.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Enrique Collar Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Keshav Chopra M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Volodymyr Iakubenko M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Rafael Giotis M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Laurence Teunissen M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Philip Henning Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Eero Vasa Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Louis Wessels Challenger Tampere · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Francesco Passaro ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Jerome Kym Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/07 | Federico Cina Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maks Kasnikowski?
Our model gives 58% to Maks Kasnikowski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.