Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 06/08, 10:00
Prediction: Lucas Poullain vs Alexandr Binda
Team pages: Lucas Poullain · Alexandr Binda
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Poullain
Alexandr Binda
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Poullain
3-7 (W-L)
Alexandr Binda
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Poullain 1459 · Alexandr Binda 1500
| Lucas Poullain | Alexandr Binda | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexandr Binda (rating 1459 vs 1500).
Statistics
| Lucas Poullain | Alexandr Binda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-10.4 | 12.5-11.7 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 56.8% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Dan Added Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Dan Added Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Isaac Becroft M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Vadym Ursu M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Raphael Perot Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Loann Massard Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/05 | Daniel Jade M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Alexandr Binda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Mert Naci Turker Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | S Mert Ozdemir Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Adrian Andreev M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/07 | Matyas Fuele Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Aaron Gil Garcia Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Reda Bennani M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Amaury Raynel M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Poullain vs Alexandr Binda?
Our model gives 55% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.