Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 05/08, 11:00
Prediction: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax
Team pages: Daniil Ostapenkov · Florent Bax
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Ostapenkov
Florent Bax
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Ostapenkov
5-5 (W-L)
Florent Bax
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Ostapenkov 1539 · Florent Bax 1537
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Florent Bax | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Ostapenkov dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 49% break avg.
Statistics
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Florent Bax | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.5 | 12.6-10 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 49% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Ostapenkov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Yurii Dzhavakian Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Lui Maxted M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Rohan Mehra M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tiago Pereira M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Guilherme Valdoleiros M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Yanki Erel M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Florent Bax
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Arthur Weber Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Dan Added Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Alexander Weis M25 Uriage |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Maxence Rivet M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Lenny Couturier M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 18-7 | W |
| 11/07 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Jadoun M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax?
Our model gives 55% to Florent Bax, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.