Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 05/08, 09:00
Prediction: Ilia Simakin vs Fajing Sun
Team pages: Ilia Simakin · Fajing Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilia Simakin
Fajing Sun
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Ilia Simakin
2-8 (W-L)
Fajing Sun
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ilia Simakin
0–1
Fajing Sun
(1 last)
- 10 May1-2 11-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilia Simakin 1471 · Fajing Sun 1431
| Ilia Simakin | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1471 vs 1431).
- Head-to-head: Ilia Simakin 0–1 Fajing Sun (1).
Statistics
| Ilia Simakin | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13.9 | 8.4-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 28.1% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
H2H · Ilia Simakin 0 – 1 Fajing Sun (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilia Simakin 0–1 Fajing Sun
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/25 Challenger Wuxi | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilia Simakin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Fajing Sun
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Semen Pankin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dakotah Bobo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilia Simakin vs Fajing Sun?
Our model gives 61% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.