Tennis · Challenger Istanbul · 04/08, 18:00
Prediction: Saba Purtseladze vs Mert Alkaya
Team pages: Saba Purtseladze · Mert Alkaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Saba Purtseladze
Mert Alkaya
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Saba Purtseladze
5-5 (W-L)
Mert Alkaya
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Saba Purtseladze 1530 · Mert Alkaya 1479
| Saba Purtseladze | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saba Purtseladze (rating 1530 vs 1479).
- Saba Purtseladze dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 57.8% break avg.
- Note: Saba Purtseladze makes many double faults (7.7/match).
Statistics
| Saba Purtseladze | Mert Alkaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-10.6 | 11.7-10.6 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 4 |
| Double faults | 7.7 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 57.8% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Saba Purtseladze
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Toufik Sahtali Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/08 | Radu Albot Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Shunsuke Nakagawa Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/07 | Edouard Villoslada Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Daniel Siniakov M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 02/07 | Calvin Mueller M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Bassem Sobhy M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Ivan Biletic M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Mert Alkaya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Akira Santillan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 26/06 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Porto |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 25/06 | Ivan Dreycopp M25 Porto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Saba Purtseladze vs Mert Alkaya?
Our model gives 56% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.