Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 04/08, 12:30
Prediction: Alexander Donski vs Takuya Kumasaka
Team pages: Alexander Donski · Takuya Kumasaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Donski
Takuya Kumasaka
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Donski
6-4 (W-L)
Takuya Kumasaka
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Donski 1552 · Takuya Kumasaka 1498
| Alexander Donski | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Donski (rating 1552 vs 1498).
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 48.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Alexander Donski | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.7 | 10.4-10.5 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 64% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 59.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Donski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 06/07 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Erik Grevelius Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Takuya Kumasaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Florent Bax Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 20/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Asier Meneses Perny Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/07 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Robin Bertrand M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Alvaro Jimenez M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Donski vs Takuya Kumasaka?
Our model gives 58% to Alexander Donski, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.