Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 04/08, 15:30
Prediction: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Mirza Basic
Team pages: Mohamed Aziz Dougaz · Mirza Basic
Prediction summary
Winner
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Mirza Basic
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
6-4 (W-L)
Mirza Basic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mohamed Aziz Dougaz 1614 · Mirza Basic 1478
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Mirza Basic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mohamed Aziz Dougaz (rating 1614 vs 1478).
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Mohamed Aziz Dougaz is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mohamed Aziz Dougaz | Mirza Basic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-8.9 | 10.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mohamed Aziz Dougaz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Alan Bojarski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Robert M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Felipe Virgili Berini M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Tuncay Duran M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Mirza Basic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Aleksander Blus Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/07 | Shunsuke Nakagawa Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 26/07 | S Mert Ozdemir Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Marat Sharipov M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/04 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Jan Klimas Challenger Ostrava · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 23/03 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Split · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 22/03 | Dinko Dinev Challenger Split · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/03 | Sergi Perez Contri Challenger Zadar · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mohamed Aziz Dougaz vs Mirza Basic?
Our model gives 73% to Mohamed Aziz Dougaz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.