Tennis · W15 Astana · 05/08, 07:00
Prediction: Daria Zelinskaya vs Arina Arifullina
Team pages: Daria Zelinskaya · Arina Arifullina
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Zelinskaya
Arina Arifullina
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Zelinskaya
5-5 (W-L)
Arina Arifullina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Zelinskaya
2–0
Arina Arifullina
(2 last)
- 25 Jan2-0 13-9W
- 01 Aug2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Zelinskaya 1493 · Arina Arifullina 1566
| Daria Zelinskaya | Arina Arifullina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arina Arifullina (rating 1493 vs 1566).
- Head-to-head: Daria Zelinskaya 2–0 Arina Arifullina (2).
Statistics
| Daria Zelinskaya | Arina Arifullina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-10.4 | 11.5-8.1 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 62% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
H2H · Daria Zelinskaya 2 – 0 Arina Arifullina (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Zelinskaya 2–0 Arina Arifullina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 W100 Fujairah | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/08/23 ITF W25 Astana | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Zelinskaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Victoria Milovanova W15 Astana |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Asylzhan Arystanbekova W15 Astana |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/07 | Sandugash Kenzhibayeva W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Sedysheva W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/07 | Weronika Falkowska WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Xi Luo W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Priska Madelyn Nugroho W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Jiangxue Han W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Yanan Hou W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Yanan Hou W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Arina Arifullina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Ying Zhang WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Karla Bartel W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 27/06 | Lenka Munzarova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Yelyzaveta Chainykova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Anna Donnell W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Tanisha Kashyap W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Lucie Pawlak W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Carol Plakk W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 11/06 | Sun Min Ha W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Dominika Podhajecka W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Zelinskaya vs Arina Arifullina?
Our model gives 59% to Daria Zelinskaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.