Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 03/08, 02:00
Prediction: Kotaro Mochizuki vs Haru Kawanaka
Team pages: Kotaro Mochizuki
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Prediction summary
Winner
Kotaro Mochizuki
Haru Kawanaka
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Kotaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Haru Kawanaka
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kotaro Mochizuki
2–0
Haru Kawanaka
(2 last)
- 13 Aug2-0 12-2W
- 19 Jun2-0 12-1W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kotaro Mochizuki 1485 · Haru Kawanaka 1432
| Kotaro Mochizuki | Haru Kawanaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kotaro Mochizuki (rating 1485 vs 1432).
- Head-to-head: Kotaro Mochizuki 2–0 Haru Kawanaka (2).
- Note: Kotaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (6.5/match).
Statistics
| Kotaro Mochizuki | Haru Kawanaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.8 | 8.2-11.1 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 6.5 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 58.6% |
| Break % | 50% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Kotaro Mochizuki 2 – 0 Haru Kawanaka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kotaro Mochizuki 2–0 Haru Kawanaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/25 UTR Pro Yokohama | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06/25 UTR Pro Fukui | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kotaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Koyu Yanagi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Kristijan Janev UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Filippo Alberti UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Baltazar Wiger Nordas UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Aleksa Pisaric UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Charlie Swaine UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Asaf Friedler UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 13/06 | Stephanos Schinas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Haru Kawanaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Asher Brownrigg UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Elijah Dikkenberg UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 23/04 | Ryuto Kizaki UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/04 | Tomoki Fujiwara UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/04 | Jared Horwood UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/04 | Kanari Izumisawa UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/04 | Shohei Chikami UTR Pro Yokohama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/02 | Sam Oster UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/02 | Thomas Fancutt UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/02 | Arjun Mehrotra UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kotaro Mochizuki vs Haru Kawanaka?
Our model gives 75% to Kotaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.