Tennis · Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · 04/08, 11:00
Prediction: Mathys Erhard vs Olaf Pieczkowski
Team pages: Mathys Erhard
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathys Erhard
Olaf Pieczkowski
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mathys Erhard
7-3 (W-L)
Olaf Pieczkowski
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathys Erhard 1576 · Olaf Pieczkowski 1489
| Mathys Erhard | Olaf Pieczkowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mathys Erhard (rating 1576 vs 1489).
- Mathys Erhard is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Olaf Pieczkowski makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Mathys Erhard | Olaf Pieczkowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-8.9 | 10.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 69% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 56.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathys Erhard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Ollersbach |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Andrej Martin M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jan Kumstat M25 Ollersbach |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 23/07 | Thilo Behrmann M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Jonas Gundacker M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Olaf Pieczkowski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Dan Brand M15 Astana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/06 | Garrett Johns Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 24/05 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/03 | Andrew Fenty M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 20/03 | Branko Djuric M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-3 | W |
| 19/03 | Billy Suarez M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/03 | Christopher Papa M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/02 | Guillaume Dalmasso M15 San Jose |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 13/02 | Stefan Dostanic Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathys Erhard vs Olaf Pieczkowski?
Our model gives 59% to Mathys Erhard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.