Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 04/08, 09:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Angelini vs Petr Nesterov
Team pages: Lorenzo Angelini · Petr Nesterov
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Angelini
Petr Nesterov
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Angelini
7-3 (W-L)
Petr Nesterov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Angelini
0–1
Petr Nesterov
(1 last)
- 08 May0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Angelini 1529 · Petr Nesterov 1535
| Lorenzo Angelini | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Angelini 0–1 Petr Nesterov (1).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Angelini | Petr Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-7.3 | 12.8-11 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 59.3% | 38.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Lorenzo Angelini 0 – 1 Petr Nesterov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Angelini 0–1 Petr Nesterov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/25 ITF M15 Bistrita | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Angelini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/07 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Denia |
0-1 | 2-6 | L |
| 23/07 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Santamarta Roig M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Luca Potenza Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 05/07 | Luca Castagnola M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-1 | W |
| 03/07 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
Petr Nesterov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Eero Vasa M25 Gentofte |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 31/07 | Karl Friberg M25 Gentofte |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Ole Bredschneijder M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Lewie Lane M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Angelini vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model gives 57% to Petr Nesterov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.