Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 31/07, 16:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Timofey Skatov
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas · Timofey Skatov
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Timofey Skatov
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
7-3 (W-L)
Timofey Skatov
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1585 · Timofey Skatov 1545
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Timofey Skatov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1585 vs 1545).
- Juan Pablo Varillas dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 48.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Timofey Skatov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-12.4 | 11.1-10.6 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Timofey Skatov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Otto Virtanen Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Thomas Faurel Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Domingues ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 13/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Anirudh Chandrasekar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Timofey Skatov?
Our model gives 54% to Timofey Skatov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.