Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 31/07, 20:30
Prediction: Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro
Team pages: Vilius Gaubas · Thiago Monteiro
Prediction summary
Winner
Vilius Gaubas
Thiago Monteiro
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Vilius Gaubas
4-6 (W-L)
Thiago Monteiro
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Vilius Gaubas
0–2
Thiago Monteiro
(2 last)
- 14 Jul1-2 11-13L
- 17 Sept0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilius Gaubas 1512 · Thiago Monteiro 1569
| Vilius Gaubas | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1512 vs 1569).
- Head-to-head: Vilius Gaubas 0–2 Thiago Monteiro (2).
Statistics
| Vilius Gaubas | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.6 | 12.6-10.4 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Vilius Gaubas 0 – 2 Thiago Monteiro (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilius Gaubas 0–2 Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/25 ATP Bastad | 1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/09/24 Challenger Bad Waltersdorf | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Mmoh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Thiago Monteiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Manuel Mazza Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Alberto Bronzetti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Flynn Thomas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Dylan Dietrich ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro?
Our model gives 50% to Vilius Gaubas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.