Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 31/07, 11:00
Prediction: Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak
Team pages: Alexandre Muller · Mili Poljicak
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexandre Muller
Mili Poljicak
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alexandre Muller
2-8 (W-L)
Mili Poljicak
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexandre Muller 1438 · Mili Poljicak 1535
| Alexandre Muller | Mili Poljicak | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mili Poljicak (rating 1438 vs 1535).
- Mili Poljicak is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alexandre Muller | Mili Poljicak | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-12.9 | 13.3-13 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 77% |
| Break % | 22.1% | 27.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexandre Muller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mariano Navone ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 16/05 | Edas Butvilas ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Mili Poljicak
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/07 | Jozef Kovalik Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Enrico Baldisserri Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Mika Brunold Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 28/06 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak?
Our model gives 51% to Alexandre Muller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.