Tennis · ATP Washington · 31/07, 20:00
Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
7-3 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
1–2
Brandon Nakashima
(3 last)
- 19 Jun0-2 8-13L
- 25 Jul2-0 12-8W
- 19 Oct0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1547 · Brandon Nakashima 1548
| Alex De Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 10.7 aces and 60.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 1–2 Brandon Nakashima (3).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-10.9 | 17.9-15.1 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 10.7 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 79.4% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 60.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.1
Over 22.5: 76% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 24% · 1.83
H2H · Alex De Minaur 1 – 2 Brandon Nakashima (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 1–2 Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 ATP Queens | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07/25 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10/21 ATP Antwerp | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Jakub Mensik ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-22 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 57% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.