Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 31/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov
Team pages: Jamie Mackenzie · Jurij Rodionov
Prediction summary
Winner
Jamie Mackenzie
Jurij Rodionov
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Jamie Mackenzie
5-5 (W-L)
Jurij Rodionov
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jamie Mackenzie
0–1
Jurij Rodionov
(1 last)
- 06 Aug0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jamie Mackenzie 1503 · Jurij Rodionov 1552
| Jamie Mackenzie | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jurij Rodionov (rating 1503 vs 1552).
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 50.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jamie Mackenzie 0–1 Jurij Rodionov (1).
Statistics
| Jamie Mackenzie | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-12.8 | 11.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Jamie Mackenzie 0 – 1 Jurij Rodionov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jamie Mackenzie 0–1 Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/25 Challenger Bonn | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jamie Mackenzie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Metzingen |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Tomas Farjat M25 Metzingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 14/05 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Vic |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Jack Loge M25 Vic |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/04 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Andrey Chepelev ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Crawford Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov?
Our model gives 65% to Jurij Rodionov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.