Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 30/07, 10:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
24.7
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1445 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1562
| Francesco Maestrelli | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1445 vs 1562).
- Juan Pablo Varillas is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Francesco Maestrelli makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-14.1 | 13-12.1 |
| Aces | 16.2 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 68% |
| Break % | 35% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Rio Noguchi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Miguel Damas Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 56% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.