Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 30/07, 10:00
Prediction: Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino
Team pages: Thiago Monteiro · Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Monteiro
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Monteiro
8-2 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Monteiro
5–1
Andrea Pellegrino
(6 last)
- 20 Jun2-0 12-8W
- 25 Sept2-0 13-7W
- 29 Sept0-2 9-13L
- 25 Sept2-1 16-11W
- 03 Sept2-0 12-7W
- 18 Sept2-1 18-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Monteiro 1564 · Andrea Pellegrino 1514
| Thiago Monteiro | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Monteiro (rating 1564 vs 1514).
- Head-to-head: Thiago Monteiro 5–1 Andrea Pellegrino (6).
Statistics
| Thiago Monteiro | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11.3 | 12.2-11.7 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 69% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Thiago Monteiro 5 – 1 Andrea Pellegrino (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Monteiro 5–1 Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/23 Challenger Parma | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/09/22 Challenger Genova | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/09/21 Challenger Lisbon | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09/20 Challenger Forli | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 03/09/19 Challenger Genova | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/09/18 Challenger Biella | 2-1 | 18-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Monteiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Manuel Mazza Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Alberto Bronzetti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Philip Henning Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 19/07 | Flynn Thomas Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Dylan Dietrich ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/07 | Joao Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 54% to Andrea Pellegrino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.