Tennis · M25 Bolzano · 29/07, 14:30
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Vladyslav Orlov
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Vladyslav Orlov
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Vladyslav Orlov
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
6-4 (W-L)
Vladyslav Orlov
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1557 · Vladyslav Orlov 1658
| Luca Castagnola | Vladyslav Orlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vladyslav Orlov (rating 1557 vs 1658).
- Vladyslav Orlov is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Vladyslav Orlov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 2-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-8.8 | 13.7-8.4 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.3% | 68% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Vladyslav Orlov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Michele Mecarelli M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/07 | Tomohiro Masabayashi M25 Ollersbach |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Max Wiskandt M25 Kramsach |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Lambert Ruland M25 Kramsach |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Luca Staeheli M25 Kramsach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Facundo Yunis M25 Kramsach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Nico Hipfl M25 Kramsach |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Petros Tsitsipas M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Jan Chlodnicki M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Jakub Vrtilka M15 Lodz |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Vladyslav Orlov?
Our model gives 69% to Vladyslav Orlov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.