Tennis · Challenger Vancouver · 29/07, 19:00
Prediction: Liam Broady vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Liam Broady · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Broady
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Broady
4-6 (W-L)
Jay Friend
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Broady 1454 · Jay Friend 1530
| Liam Broady | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1454 vs 1530).
- Jay Friend is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Liam Broady | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.4 | 11.1-9.1 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 33.4% | 50.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | August Holmgren Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Connor Church Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Strong Kirchheimer M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Cole Thurgur M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Eloi Roux M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Broady vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 50% to Liam Broady, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.