Tennis · ATP Washington · 30/07, 17:00
Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
30.6Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
9-1 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
0–2
Jakub Mensik
(2 last)
- 10 Jan0-2 10-13L
- 05 Jan0-2 10-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1552 · Jakub Mensik 1550
| Brandon Nakashima | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Brandon Nakashima dominates on serve: 10.6 aces and 60.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Brandon Nakashima 0–2 Jakub Mensik (2).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1 | 2.3-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.2-14.4 | 20.2-18.6 |
| Aces | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 60.7% | 30.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
30.6 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +6.1
Over 24.5: 86% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 14% · 1.83
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 0 – 2 Jakub Mensik (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 0–2 Jakub Mensik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/24 Australian Open | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/01/24 Challenger Canberra | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 31-31 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-22 | W |
| 25/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
Jakub Mensik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-24 | L |
| 30/06 | Toby Samuel Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 02/06 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 31/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex De Minaur French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/05 | Mariano Navone French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 22-25 | W |
| 24/05 | Titouan Droguet French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 53% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.