Tennis · Challenger Vancouver · 29/07, 20:30
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Braden Shick
Team pages: August Holmgren · Braden Shick
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Braden Shick
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
3-7 (W-L)
Braden Shick
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1521 · Braden Shick 1568
| August Holmgren | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braden Shick (rating 1521 vs 1568).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-13.1 | 11.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 27.4% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 08/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Benjamin Thomas George Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | William Manning M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 56% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.