Tennis · ATP Washington · 30/07, 02:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Kei Nishikori
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Kei Nishikori
Estimated games
27.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
6-4 (W-L)
Kei Nishikori
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1555 · Kei Nishikori 1516
| Rafael Jodar | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Kei Nishikori | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.5-16.3 | 13-11.9 |
| Aces | 6 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 71% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.6
Over 21.5: 84% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 16% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 26-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex Michelsen French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 27/05 | James Duckworth French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Luciano Darderi ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Kei Nishikori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/04 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/03 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Thionville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 03/03 | Clement Tabur Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 02/03 | Jelle Sels Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/03 | Daniel Jade Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori?
Our model gives 70% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.