Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 30/07, 11:00
Prediction: Niels McDonald vs Jurij Rodionov
Team pages: Niels McDonald · Jurij Rodionov
Prediction summary
Winner
Niels McDonald
Jurij Rodionov
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Niels McDonald
5-5 (W-L)
Jurij Rodionov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Niels McDonald
1–0
Jurij Rodionov
(1 last)
- 29 Jul2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niels McDonald 1544 · Jurij Rodionov 1504
| Niels McDonald | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Niels McDonald (rating 1544 vs 1504).
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Niels McDonald 1–0 Jurij Rodionov (1).
- Note: Niels McDonald makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Niels McDonald | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.8 | 10.9-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Niels McDonald 1 – 0 Jurij Rodionov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Niels McDonald 1–0 Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/25 Challenger Hagen | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niels McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Jurij Rodionov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Andrey Chepelev ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Crawford Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niels McDonald vs Jurij Rodionov?
Our model gives 55% to Jurij Rodionov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.