Tennis · Challenger Bonn · 30/07, 10:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Alex Barrena
Team pages: Jan Choinski · Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
6-4 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
1-9 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jan Choinski
0–1
Alex Barrena
(1 last)
- 16 Mar1-2 14-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1586 · Alex Barrena 1481
| Jan Choinski | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Choinski (rating 1586 vs 1481).
- Jan Choinski is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jan Choinski 0–1 Alex Barrena (1).
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 86% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11 | 11.1-12.6 |
| Aces | 7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 61.5% |
| Break % | 39% | 28.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Jan Choinski 0 – 1 Alex Barrena (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan Choinski 0–1 Alex Barrena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/23 ITF M25 Anapoima | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alex Barrena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Johan Nikles Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 70% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.