Tennis · ATP Washington · 29/07, 16:00
Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Aleksandar Vukic
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Vukic
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Vukic
8-2 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aleksandar Vukic
0–1
Lorenzo Musetti
(1 last)
- 02 Feb1-2 15-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1601 · Lorenzo Musetti 1527
| Aleksandar Vukic | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aleksandar Vukic (rating 1601 vs 1527).
- Head-to-head: Aleksandar Vukic 0–1 Lorenzo Musetti (1).
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.2 | 10.4-10.1 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 78.9% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Aleksandar Vukic 0 – 1 Lorenzo Musetti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aleksandar Vukic 0–1 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/22 ATP Pune | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Zachary Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/07 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/04 | Arthur Fils ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Corentin Moutet ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/04 | Martin Landaluce ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/04 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 56% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.