Tennis · M15 Strasbourg · 28/07, 18:00
Prediction: Arthur Nagel vs Liam Branger
Team pages: Liam Branger
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Nagel
Liam Branger
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Nagel
7-3 (W-L)
Liam Branger
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Nagel 1564 · Liam Branger 1492
| Arthur Nagel | Liam Branger | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1564 vs 1492).
Statistics
| Arthur Nagel | Liam Branger | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-7.7 | 12.2-10.1 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 59.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Daniel Jade M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Maxime Chazal M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Mae Malige M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/05 | Tristan Berard M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/05 | Leo Lagarrigue M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Sander Jong M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-13 | L |
| 09/05 | Petr Nesterov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 08/05 | Michele Mecarelli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/05 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 06/05 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Liam Branger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Nicolas Jadoun M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Timofey Stepanov M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Augusto Mateo Lucarelli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/04 | Robin Bertrand M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 16/04 | Luca Potenza M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 15/04 | Gilberto Ravasio M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/04 | Justin Lenders M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Nagel vs Liam Branger?
Our model gives 67% to Arthur Nagel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.