Tennis · ATP Washington · 28/07, 17:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McDonald
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Mackenzie McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Mackenzie McDonald
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
9-1 (W-L)
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
2–0
Mackenzie McDonald
(2 last)
- 12 Aug2-0 12-5W
- 21 Jul2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1561 · Mackenzie McDonald 1488
| Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1561 vs 1488).
- Mackenzie McDonald dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Alex Michelsen is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 2–0 Mackenzie McDonald (2).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-10.5 | 12.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 56.4% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.80
H2H · Alex Michelsen 2 – 0 Mackenzie McDonald (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 2–0 Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/24 ATP Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07/23 ATP Newport | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
Mackenzie McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Niels Visker ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model gives 67% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.