Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 28/07, 14:00
Prediction: Jacopo Vasami vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacopo Vasami
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Jacopo Vasami
5-5 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacopo Vasami 1524 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1558
| Jacopo Vasami | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Juan Pablo Varillas dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 47.4% break avg.
- Note: Jacopo Vasami makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jacopo Vasami | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.9 | 13.4-12.9 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 68% |
| Break % | 51.3% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacopo Vasami
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 31/05 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 29/05 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 26/05 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cervia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacopo Vasami vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 52% to Jacopo Vasami, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.