Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 28/07, 12:30
Prediction: Federico Coria vs Francesco Forti
Team pages: Federico Coria · Francesco Forti
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Coria
Francesco Forti
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Coria
4-6 (W-L)
Francesco Forti
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Coria 1440 · Francesco Forti 1528
| Federico Coria | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesco Forti (rating 1440 vs 1528).
Statistics
| Federico Coria | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-12.5 | 13-12.5 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Coria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Taro Daniel ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Bonding Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Andrea Collarini Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 18/05 | Vilius Gaubas French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Francesco Forti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Federico Zeballos Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Peter Makk Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Pietro Pampanin Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Jack Loge Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/06 | Fausto Tabacco Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Coria vs Francesco Forti?
Our model gives 56% to Francesco Forti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.