Tennis · Challenger San Marino · 28/07, 11:00
Prediction: Michael Vrbensky vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Michael Vrbensky · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Vrbensky
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Vrbensky
3-7 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Vrbensky 1420 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1476
| Michael Vrbensky | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1420 vs 1476).
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Nikoloz Basilashvili makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Michael Vrbensky | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-14.7 | 11.1-12.7 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/04 | Daniel Cukierman Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 05/04 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/03 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Menorca · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jan Choinski ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Elias Ymer Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 15/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Pedro Boscardin Dias French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Vrbensky vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 71% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.