Tennis · M25 Bolzano · 28/07, 10:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Luca Parenti
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Luca Parenti
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Luca Parenti
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
6-4 (W-L)
Luca Parenti
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1543 · Luca Parenti 1494
| Luca Castagnola | Luca Parenti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castagnola (rating 1543 vs 1494).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Luca Parenti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-8.4 | 10.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Luca Parenti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Segrate |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Segrate |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/07 | Nicolas Parizzia M15 Segrate |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Alessandro Pecci M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 11/05 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-10 | L |
| 10/05 | Filippo Busciola M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 26/03 | Michele Mecarelli M15 Altamura · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/03 | Filippo Mazzola M15 Altamura · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Luca Parenti?
Our model gives 72% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.